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Friday, Apr 23, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls march ahead

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to stand strongly bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Friday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The April contract moved within a band of 27 points registering an intra-day low of 1,867.10. Bears were unable to make any impact for the second successive trading day. The April contract closed with a gain of 17 points.

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The long position in the April contract remained intact. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the April contract are placed far away. In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the `top 10' tradable list remains unchanged. Tata Steel, Maruti and SBI were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Except for Infosys, all the other counters in the list are in the uptrend. Bear domination on Friday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. Bulls are likely to have a lone opportunity in Infosys. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, Infosys, ONGC and Satyam.

Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Bullish trigger level for the stock is placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash Segment: There were no new entries or exits to the `top 10' tradable list. The ranking of the list underwent a change. Reliance and Tata Steel interchanged their positions. Thursday's market action triggered the uptrend in the recommended counter - SBI.

All the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Except for Maruti and Tata Motors, all other counters are likely to be under threat. Opportunities are likely to exist only on the short side for Friday's trading.

This is likely to exist in Infosys and ONGC. Between the two, the best bet is likely to be Infosys. This counter is in the uptrend. Its exit and sell levels are placed quite closer to its last traded value. Bear move on Friday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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