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Friday, Apr 30, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of tradable counters stands mildly bearish. Bull domination on Friday is likely to change the reading in their favour. Nifty futures recommendation: The May contract opened with a bear gap of six points and went further down by another 24 points. Thereafter, the bulls managed to make a partial recovery. The May contract moved within a band of 30 points, closing with a loss of 13 points.

The short position in the April contract expired. This position is likely to be closed out at 1808.95. Entry levels are given for the May contract. The bearish trigger level is placed closer to its current level. Bear domination on Friday may trigger the downtrend in the contract.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remain unchanged. The top three traded counters in this segment were Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors.

On account of the April contract expiring, all the counters have been switched to sideways mode. The outstanding positions in the expired contract will be automatically closed out with the underlying cash prices. For Friday, traders are left with ample opportunities on either side of trading. Selling in Reliance is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. The bearish trigger level is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday may initiate the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list, too, remained unchanged. Thursday's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter.

Bull domination on Friday is likely to terminate the downtrend in Bharti Telecom, GAIL and Tata Motors. The lone uptrend counter, Satyam, is likely to be safe. Bulls are likely to have opportunities in six counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Buying in State Bank may be the best for Friday's trading. The buy level for State Bank is placed within Rs 2 from its closing value. A bull move on Friday may initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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