The Hindu Business Line : Rajasthan's politics may spring a few surprises

The contest in all the 25 seats is expected to be keen given the fact that several heavyweights and the scions of several heavyweights are in the fray.

Sikar (Rajasthan) , May 3

DESPITE being subjected to a prolonged five-year drought, the average Rajasthani never bemoans his fate.

That is one reason why on May 5, people will turn out from every corner, from the deserts of Marwar, from the hills of Mewar or the even the sprawling Shekhawati region which has yielded many farmer struggles.

The contest in all the 25 seats is expected to be keen given the fact that several heavyweights and the scions of several heavyweights are in the fray. Though the Congress (I) got a drubbing in the recent Assembly elections, it is expected to put up a keen contest against the Bharatiya Janata Party. It may be recalled that it was the favourable Assembly election results in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh that prompted a buoyant BJP to go in for an early dissolution of the 13th Lok Sabha. Therefore the results, which will emerge on May 13, will also be an aspect to look out for they could indicative of the organisational prowess of the Congress (I) or the popularity of the BJP both at the State and the Centre.

At the time of the dissolution of the thirteenth Lok Sabha, sixteen of the twenty-five seats were with the BJP and the remaining nine with the Congress (I). In fact, this will be second time in four months that the electorate will be casting its vote.

In December 2003, Assembly elections were held which saw the BJP crossing the one hundred mark in the 200 seat Rajasthan Vidhan Sabha. The Congress (I) which was in power then had to contend with five years of prolonged drought and despite the Chief Minister, Mr Ashok Gehlot's "good" image, fell short of meeting the expectations of the people of Rajasthan. But despite the setback, the vote share of the party did not plunge to dismal depths. It was in fact the BJP, despite winning 120 seats of 200, which could not hold on to the vote share it received in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the year of the Kargil wave. The victory margins of the BJP candidates in December 2003 therefore were not very large and several heavyweights including the current BJP State President, Mr Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi, and the former Deputy Chief Minister, Mr Hari Shankar Bhabra, tasted defeat. But with a comfortable majority in terms of seats, the BJP easily installed its Government lead by Ms Vasundhra Raje Scindia.

It's been more than four months now since the Assembly elections and there is speculation whether the BJP will be able to hold on to its 1999 record.

An economy primarily dependent on agriculture, power, water and input costs are the main considerations facing the landed farmer. There are other related issues like that of timely procurement and cold storage facilities as in onion-rich Sikar as well. Narain Singh, an onion farmer in Sikar explained how agriculture inputs such as diesel and fertilisers had become very expensive. "If my costs go up, naturally I won't pay the agriculture labour well," he said pointing to a group of Dalits working on his field. A labour-intensive crop, the onion farmer often depends on good prices to offset his input costs.

In the last weeks of March, the electricity supply was rather erratic. "The crop did not ripen properly," said another farmer. As a result a lot of damage was caused to the wheat, channa, mustard and fenugreek crop. In a State where a very small per cent is canal irrigated and the rest of the area dependent on a good rainfall, constant power supply is a must for tube-well irrigation. There are around 85,000 tube wells in the State. Water levels in Sikar and elsewhere have also dropped to alarming levels.

Permission has to be sought from the government to dig new wells. "It is almost like the feudal system. Earlier it was the zamindar from whom permission had to be taken to draw water, now it is the government," said Mr Amra Ram, CPI (M) contestant from Sikar. Mr Amra Ram is also the sitting MLA from the Dhod Assembly segment here. Due to the shortage of drinking water, farmers have been discouraged to draw water for irrigation from the main canals. There is no broad gauge in Sikar and as a result the region entire is cut off from the country. The Union Minister of State, Mr Subhash Mahariya, who has been re-nominated by the BJP currently represents Sikar.

Some of the main contestants include former Union Agriculture Minister, Mr Balram Jakhar from Churu, the controversial cine star Dharmendra from Bikaner, Mr Manavendra Singh, son of Finance Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh from Barmer, Mr Dushyant Singh, son of Rajasthan Chief Minister, Ms Vasundra Raje Scindia, from Jhalawar, Mr Sachin Pilot, son of late Congress (I) leader Rajesh Pilot from Dausa and the former PCC president, Ms Girija Vyas, in Udaipur. Evidently, a lot of importance has been attached to the performance of these candidates.

Overall, there is little acknowledgement of the real issues by the dominant parties. Barring the Left parties, every other party banks almost entirely on caste and community calculations. Given the economic and political dominance of the Jats, both the BJP and the Congress (I), have begun assiduously wooing this community. While the Jats, Muslims and the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, are considered as traditional allies of the Congress (I), sections of the trading community and the upper castes are deemed to constitute the BJP's vote base. In 1998, the BJP declared that Jats would be brought under the OBC category and made eligible for reservations in government jobs. It reaped the benefits of this announcement in 1999, and now has nominated seven persons from this community in these elections.

The Congress (I) too has matched this figure and given tickets to seven Jats. To woo the Muslims, the BJP has announced a series of sops, while the Congress (I) has nominated one person from this community to the Ajmer seat, which many feel will go to the BJP anyway. While these aspects may matter to an extent, the voter, while casting his vote, is likely to take other factors into account as well.

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