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Tuesday, May 04, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears dominate

K.Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue.

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Nifty futures recommendation: Bears took charge of the day's trading right from the initial bell. The May month contract lost around 10 points at the opening bell. Bulls were not able to gain much from the day's proceedings. The May contract moved within a band of 44 points. It closed lower with a loss of 31 points.

Bear domination during the day kept the prevailing downtrend undisturbed. Both the exit and bullish levels are placed quite far away. It is unlikely to be triggered during Tuesday's trading.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Tata Motors moved to third place while Satyam moved down to the fifth position. ONGC and Reliance interchanged their positions.

The top three traded counters in the list are Tata steel, Reliance Industries and Maruti. Trading activity in ONGC witnessed 6,130 trades on Monday.

There are no uptrend counters in the tradable list. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the downtrend in almost 5 counters in the list. Selling opportunity is likely to exist in the lone sideways counter - Infosys. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in CNX-IT and Infosys.

The best among the above is likely to be the buying in Infosys. This counter is in sideways. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to initiate fresh uptrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. SAIL entered the list in place of Punjab Bank. The ranking of the list had a total revamp. Reliance Industries, Satyam computers and Tata steel occupied top three positions. Monday's market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter ONGC.

All the counters in the list are in downtrend. Bull domination during Tuesday is likely to terminate downtrend in Infosys, Maruti, ONGC, State Bank and Tata Motors in the list. Bulls are likely to have a lone opportunity in Infosys. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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