The Hindu Business Line : An anti-incumbency vote in Tamil Nadu?

Across Tamil Nadu the anti-incumbency factor vis-à-vis the ruling parties in the State and at the Centre seems strong. There appears an eternal yearning for change in the hope that the other party will do something to bring some cheer into the ir lives. If India is indeed shining, how come not even a few rays have entered our lives, they ask. In a quick survey, Rasheeda Bhagat looks at reasons for such resentment.

What is the writing on the wall for the ruling party in Tamil Nadu? — Bijoy Ghosh

WHILE the pre-poll surveys and exit polls conducted by various television channels and other agencies are yo-yoing at each stage of the election, one moment giving the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance a thumbs-up, and the next saying that it is standing on a shaky wicket, almost all surveys have consistently forecast a rout for the AIADMK-BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu.

The anti-incumbency factor appears to be strong in southern Tamil Nadu. Whether it is drinking water, the scrapping of the free power scheme for farmers, the inadequacy of the Public Distribution System — particularly the removal from the PDS of those with a monthly income above Rs 5,000 — and, last but not the least, the pent-up fury of the government employees who feel that they were humiliated by the State government during the government employees' strike last year.

Taking an unprecedented tough stand on last year's strike, the Tamil Nadu Government had summarily dismissed nearly 1.7 lakh employees, and their reinstatement after a long delay came after much heartburn.

Add to this the change in the computation of the basic salary, DA and HRA for the purpose of determining the retirement package of a government employee, and the rumour that after the elections the Jayalalithaa Government would hit them further by reducing the retirement age from 58 to 56, and you have a group that, as observers say, is waiting to "teach the government a lesson."

The simmering discontent is so perceptible that on May 1 the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Ms Jayalalithaa, in an apparent attempt to woo this fraternity, appealed to the Tamil Nadu government employees that they should not fall victim to the "propaganda" unleashed by the Opposition parties that her government was against their welfare. Charging the Opposition with trying to mislead them only to garner votes, she assured them that her government would always act in their best interest. But it is doubtful if this appeal and the assurance will cut ice with a fraternity that is simply seething at what it perceives to be unfair treatment.

If a professor at Manonmanian Sundaranar University in Tirunelveli is to be believed, many university teachers have begun to campaign actively for the defeat of the AIADMK-BJP candidates.

It is amazing to find voters across constituencies — whether in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh or the Hindi heartland — analysing, with the confidence and conviction of expert political analysts, why this particular alliance will do well and why the opponents will get drubbed.

In a village in Dindigul district, Ramiah, a small farmer with a one-acre landholding, is upset with the State government for not giving free power to ryots like him, and predicts a rout for the AIADMK-front. "Believe me, they will be lucky if they get three-four seats. The BJP has been ruling in Delhi for five years and the AIADMK was brought back to power in 2001. What have both the parties given to poor people like us? We have no water, no food, no jobs. Is there any reason for us to bring them back to power?" he asks.

Quizzed about the Rajnikanth factor helping the AIADMK front, as the star had specifically asked his fans to vote for the BJP-AIADMK alliance and against the PMK (a component of the DMK-led Front), he says: "Where is the Rajni wave here? Gone are the days when film stars like MGR and Jayalalithaa could create a mass hysteria and get our votes. That was an era when you had to go to a theatre, maybe once a week or once a month, to see a film star. But today, when people can sit at home and watch three or four films on TV in a single day, the appeal of all these mega stars has disappeared."

Abdul Qader is a petty trader who runs a shop from a handcart on NH-7 about 20 km from Kanyakumari. His vote is in Nagercoil constituency, from where the BJP's sitting MP, Mr Pon Radhakrishnan, is seeking re-election. "He is a decent man and has done quite a lot for the constituency. He has built roads and bridges and is not arrogant like other leaders. But after the Gujarat riots of 2002, how can any Muslim vote for a BJP candidate?"

Shooing away a much younger Rehman, who tries to butt in with his opinion that it is not necessary that all Muslims will not vote for the BJP, he says: "All this is only rhetoric and maybe said out of fear. Take it from me, no Muslim, or even Christian from Nagercoil, will vote for him. Some of us did support him last time, but this time, the whole situation has changed."

So what would be his solution to the Ayodhya tangle? "I don't want a mandir, and I don't want a masjid either. Destroying the Babri Masjid was wrong. But now that it has been done, let us have a medical or engineering university or a big hospital in that complex. That is the only way the Hindus and Muslims can live in peace in this country," he concludes.

The Madurai-Kanyakumari belt is also the region where the self-help groups have been a big success. Will the women who have managed to get the benefit of this scheme vote for the present dispensation?

"Not necessarily," says Prof K. A. Manikumar, Professor of History at the MS University in Tirunelveli, "though attempts are being made by the ruling party to buy their votes. We have a servant maid who is the leader of one such group. These days she finishes her work by 9 a.m. and is ready to board a truck or a van which will take huge groups of women to the meetings addressed by the Chief Minister."

Each of the women, he says, gets a meal, a daily allowance of Rs 50 and "they all have been promised that just before the election they will be paid Rs 1,000. Heaven alone knows if they will get this money or if it will remain yet another empty promise."

Mr A. Britto, an advocate of Tirunelveli, feels that growing unemployment, increasing corruption in the health and education sectors and the pathetic plight of farmers who struggle to grow their crop, only to face the bigger hurdle of selling it at profitable rates, are all factors that have created a huge anti-incumbency feeling.

Prof Manikumar adds that the ban on animal sacrifice in temples imposed by the Jayalalithaa government, but revoked thereafter, was another factor that would work against the AIADMK.

"Animal sacrifice is very popular in this part of the State and is practised by several communities including Dalits and Thevars," he says and adds: "Even though this is allowed now, people feel that after the elections the ban will be imposed again. Animals are sacrificed in Kali, Mariamman and Isakkiamman temples and after the sacrifice, the meat is cooked and the villagers partake of the feast, where alcohol of course flows freely. This is a popular custom and there is resentment that anybody should try to stop it."

At most places and with most people, the ruling parties at the Centre and in Tamil Nadu get little chance. The DMK-MDMK-PMK-Congress(I)-Left Parties alliance is seen as formidable.

The refrain is the same: The poll arithmetic is on their side; neither the BJP nor the AIADMK governments has done anything substantial to improve the lives of the ordinary people in villages or towns. Successive droughts and water shortage have only increased the drudgery and the burden of their lives.

The story is the same old one — anti-incumbency and the eternal yearning for change in the desperate hope that the other party might do something to bring a little cheer into their dull, listless lives.

If India is indeed shining, how come not even a few rays have entered our lives, is their question.

(Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)