The Hindu Business Line : An issueless election once again?

Elections are generally decided by thewave syndrome. The issues, generally, take a backseat. Pollsters say voters do not vote a party to power but vote out the party in power. The winners are beneficiaries of what is called "negative votes". Whether it is good for the healthy growth of democracy is a subject of debate.

IN A democracy, elections are supposed to be fought on substantive issues that affect the common people. When did India last have an election that was fought on a clear, recognisable issue? Perhaps, in 1971 when the Congress(I) fought on the "Garibi Hatao" (remove poverty) plank. Elections in India are a gigantic exercise spread over three-four weeks. Three weeks in politics is a long time.

Events happening in the interim, including exit polls, have a way of influencing the subsequent polling. Indians are highly emotional and can be swayed one way or other by what are called "waves". Thus, the party that humbled Indira Gandhi in the 1977, post-Emergency Lok Sabha elections, was itself voted out in two years; exploiting a anti-Janata Party wave, Indiara Gandhi returned to power with two-thirds majority.

In her final term in power, Indira Gandhi had become unpopular for the way she had handled problems such as Punjab, Assam and the way she foisted Chief Ministers in Congress-ruled States against the majority sentiment in the State Congress Legislature party.

There was a countrywide outcry for the way she dismissed the duly elected government of N. T. Rama Rao in Andhra Pradesh. She had become palpably unpopular. She was widely expected perform poorly in the elections that were due late 1984.

Then came her assassination on October 31, 1984, barely a few weeks before the scheduled elections. There was an instant wave of sympathy for her surviving son, RajivGandhi, if not, for the Congress itself.

The Congress(I) swept the polls and retained power with an unprecedented three-fourths majority. Rajiv Gandhi, who was earlier anointed his mother's successor, was sworn in Prime Minister for the second time in three months in January 1985. Later, the Bofors scandal had resulted in an anti-Rajiv and Congress(I) wave in the November 1989 elections.

There was no apparent wave in the 1991 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress(I), under Rajiv Gandhi was only expected to do better but not return to power. Then came the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi near Chennai on May 21, 1991. The first phase of polling was over. But the assassination created a sympathy wave in favour of the Congress(I).

The results showed that the party had done better in the constituencies and the States that had had polling in the second phase. The Congress(I) emerged as the single largest party, though it failed to get majority on its own. It formed a minority government under Mr P. V. Narasimha Rao. It would be tempting to conclude that the Congress(I) would have done much worse but for the post-Rajiv assassination sympathy wave.

This is, perhaps, enough to show that Indian elections are generally decided by thewave syndrome. The issues, generally, take a backseat. Pollsters say Indian voters do not vote a party to power but essentially vote out the party in power. Thus, the winners are beneficiaries of what is called "negative votes". Whether it is good for the healthy growth of democracy is a subject of debate and discussion.

In the Lok Sabha Elections 2004, there has been no apparent wave. Nor may there be one in the final two phases, on May 5 and May 10. There has been no wave, but quite a few things do appear to favour of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), in general, and the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in particular. Though there have been some scandals, such as the Tehelka expose of alleged corruption in Defence deals, the cash-on-camera scam involving the former BJP president, Mr Bangaru Laxman, and the Judeo tape affair, these have not stuck as Bofors did. Moreover, there have been scandals in the Opposition camp too, such as Mr Ajit Jogi being involved in a cash-on-camera deal.

The Congress(I) thought it fit to raise the so-called "foreign origin" of the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr L. K. Advani, in a facileretaliation to the BJP raking up the "foreign origin" of Ms Sonia Gandhi. The party insisted that Mr Advani was a "foreigner" because he was born in Karachi, choosing to ignore the fact that it was in the pre-1947 undivided India. If Mr Advani is "foreigner" in the reckoning of the Congress, then a number of the 60-plus population in Punjab, West Bengal, Assam, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and some other States may have to be branded "foreigners".

This only shows that political parties are not prepared to raise real hard issues that would involve deep thought and hard work.

There has been a distinct change in the tone and tenor of the campaign by rival political parties following findings of the exit polls for the phases ofpolling already over. The marked improvement predicted for the Congress(I)'s performance has infused new blood into the party. It is sanguine as never before. This is seen in its sudden shift of stand that has now become aggressive.

Perhaps, in the heat of the new-found hopes for a better showing, the Congress(I) has chosen to raise the issue of an ageing Mr Vajpayee's fitness, physical and mental, to discharge the onerous duties as the nation's chief executive. The Congress(I) knows Mr Vajpayee's health condition from the beginning. Had it been true to itself, the party should have raised the issue long before. Taking up the issue now, only raises doubts about its sincerity and opens itself to the question if it was not resorting to "hitting below the belt".

The results of exit polls have somewhat moderated the mood of the BJP. Gone are its early days when it had claimed it would secure majority on its own and get more than 300 with the tally of its allies. Now, it is seeing the possibility of a hung Parliament and has started asking the voters to give it a clear majority for the sake of stability.

Mr Vajpayee himself has pleaded for a clear-cut verdict in favour of the BJP and the NDA so that "the good work" of the past six years can be continued. The party has changed its campaign strategy and is going all out to woo the voters in the last two phases, the first of which is being held today

It is sad that the two major parties in the nation are looking for easy ways out to improve their poll prospects. They are anxious to clutch on to anything that readily presents itself rather than trying to focus on the real, hard issues such as reducing poverty and improving the standard of living. But, then, all parties across the political spectrum are guilty on this count.

(The author, a former Deputy Editor with PTI, is a New Delhi-based freelance writer.)