The Hindu Business Line : Pakistan: Change-in-progress

There has been a change in Pakistan — from the economy to the mindset vis-à-vis India. The recently-concluded cricket series may have turned the thaw into warmth, but there should not be unrealistic expectations, says G. Parthasarathy wh o, going there after a gap of four years, found a different country.

AS THE PIA aircraft touched down in Lahore last week, I was startled to see the transformation that had taken place in the airport that was earlier as, if not more, dilapidated, crowded and dirty as any international airport in India.

If the state of the international airports is used as an indicator of a country's progress, India would rank alongside African countries such as Burundi and Congo. But, like the Karachi version, the Lahore international airport is today spacious, clean and well-designed — quite unlike Indian facilities.

The former Prime Minister, Mr Nawaz Sharif, had planned the Lahore airport's modernisation and expansion. The Pakistani strongman, Gen Pervez Musharraf's regime has translated these plans into reality. When a new government is constituted in New Delhi, after the elections, the Civil Aviation Minister would be well advised to learn more not merely from the Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) countries but also from Pakistan about the designing and planning of international airports, instead of trying to halt the disinvestment of Air-India, as many Ministry bosses have been doing in the past.

Returning to Pakistan after a lapse of four years, and meeting and speaking to friends there was an interesting experience. If the Pakistan army had deluded itself that one of its soldiers is as good as ten Indians, many Pakistanis steadfastly believed (not without good reason) about the invincibility of their cricket and hockey teams against what they thought were supine Indians who wilt under pressure.

That belief now stands shattered by the new generation of Indian cricketers like Virender Sehwag, Irfan Pathan, Mohammed Kaif and Lakshmipathi Balaji, motivated, trained and coached by the likes of John Wright. Mercifully, in an era of globalisation, we have fast learnt that narrow considerations of national pride that results in the exclusion of foreign skill and talent are as counterproductive in the cricket field, as they are in economic management.

The elite in Lahore still fondly remembers the camaraderie between the Indian and Pakistani fans during the recent cricket series. We are not accustomed to treating visitors with spontaneous gestures like those of Lahore shopkeepers who overwhelm Indians with manifestations of generosity. But our government and the BCCI would do well to see that visitors from Pakistan to the next series in India are looked after with the same efficiency and consideration that Mr I. S. Bindra and the Punjab Cricket Association extended to spectators from Pakistan who visited Chandigarh for a one-day international in 1999.

The terrorist attacks of 9/11 on New York and Washington have been an economic windfall for Pakistan. When I left that country in May 2000, it was tottering on the brink of economic bankruptcy and on the verge of reneging on debt repayments.

Massive economic assistance from Uncle Sam and his allies have led to a comfortable foreign exchange position and signs of economic recovery. But the past four years have also seen a rapid rise in anti-US sentiments, with American nationals in Pakistan living in constant fear of becoming victims of terrorist violence.

Recent military operations in South Waziristan at Washington's behest by the Pakistan army have resulted in the deaths of scores of Pashtun tribals and Pakistani army men.

As these anti-American sentiments have inevitably affected the military establishment, it is doubtful if Gen Musharraf will have either the inclination or the will to respond to urgent Washington pleas to act militarily against suspected Al Qaeda strongholds in North Waziristan.

The Americans are strengthening their military presence close to Pakistan's frontiers in Afghanistan's Paktika Province.

Gen Musharraf could face the prospect of American "hot pursuit" if he does not oblige his patrons. In this election year, the US President, Mr George Bush, desperately needs to "get" Osama bin Laden "dead or alive".

Given the tightening of the American noose, I could sense a growing recognition, within sections of civil society and even the political establishment, of the need to mend fences with India. There is some realisation that tensions with India and resort to jehad as an instrument of foreign policy have spurred domestic violence and retarded economic progress.

Many Pakistanis and the present establishment are keeping a close eye on the elections in India and are hoping for the emergence of a Government headed by Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

But it was also clear to me that some of the pronouncements of Mr. Vajpayee during the election campaign have raised unrealistic expectations in Pakistan of an early "solution" to the "core issue" of Kashmir. For, even a moderate like the Foreign Minister, Mr Khurshid Kasuri, speaks as though a mere meeting between Foreign Ministers will lead to the emergence of some magical "road map" for an early Kashmir settlement.

There are also unrealistic expectations that India will not be averse to formulations on Kashmir — such as the so-called "Chenab Solution" — that would involve handing over the Muslim majority portions of J&K to Pakistan.

Assertions by Mr Vajpayee about how tensions with Pakistan have kept us economically backward are fuelling the belief in Pakistan that pressure can be used to extract concessions from India. It is time that our own political leadership realised that there is little correlation between economic growth and relations with Pakistan.

There was a total absence of tension with Pakistan in the 1970s after the signing of the Shimla Accord.

Our economy, however, grew only at around 3.5 per cent annually during that decade. Despite the continuing Pakistani involvement in terrorism in Punjab the Indian economy grew by over 5.5 per cent in the 1980s. Finally, it began growing at around 6.5 per cent annually after the commencement of a sustained attempt by Pakistan to promote violence and jehad in Jammu and Kashmir in the 1990s. Tensions with Pakistan thus have little to do with the less-than-satisfactory economic progress achieved by us, especially given the fact that on an average we have barely spent 2.5 per cent of GDP on Defence over the past decade.

If the Indian economy does not perform to its full potential it is because of corruption, mismanagement, economic profligacy and a reluctance to expedite economic reforms.

India is scheduled to commence a wide-ranging dialogue process with Pakistan after the elections, culminating in a Foreign Minister level meeting in August. It remains to be seen whether the conduct of this dialogue will be influenced more by "India baiters" in the Foreign Office and the "India bleeders" ISI, or by sober politicians like Mr Kasuri and the Prime Minister, Mr Jamali.

The bureaucracy and the ISI establishment will make every effort to scuttle any prospect of forward movement on economic and people to people ties and even perhaps on nuclear and conventional confidence building measures.

They appear set to take positions and make demands on issues such as the reopening of the Indian Consulate-General in Karachi and the establishment of a Srinagar-Muzzafarabad bus service that they know will be unacceptable to India. It is, therefore, important to see that this does not happen, through behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

It is also important to end unrealistic expectations on the Kashmir issue by making it clear that the one can expect in coming months is the commencement of a process that will enable us to manage the issue amicably and free from violence, pending its settlement. Any peace process, whether in Northern Ireland or West Asia, goes on for years if not decades, before viable frameworks for solutions to complex issues are found.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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