The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon to hit Andamans in two days

The next major landfall would be the Sri Lankan coast on May 25, before the system reaches the Kerala coast on June 1 on its Indian leg. According to projections, the country is set to have a 100 per cent normal south-west monsoon.

Thiruvananthapuram , May 12

THE India Meteorological Department's (IMD) projections for this year's monsoon got a boost in terms of reliability, with all indicators signalling the onset of the tropical weather system over South Andaman Sea within 48 hours.

This is largely in keeping with the normal schedule for the onset, with May 15 being the appointed day for South Andamans. The next major landfall would be the Sri Lankan coast on May 25, before the system reaches the Kerala coast on June 1 on its Indian leg.

According to the Met Office, "conditions are favourable for the onset of the system over South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal during the next two days".

Earlier in April, the IMD had in its long range forecast said that the country is set to have a "100 per cent" normal south-west monsoon this year, which was even more bullish than the one it had made for 2003, and which turned out to be a successful monsoon year.

Total rainfall for the country as a whole during the coming monsoon season (June-September) would be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a quantitative model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. The LPA is the average precipitation received over a 70-year period (1901-70), which is about 88 cm.

As per the IMD's eight-parameter "probabilistic model", there was only four per cent likelihood of a drought this year, which provides for a scenario of total rainfall during June-September being less than 90 per cent of the LPA.

On the other hand, there was a 16 per cent probability of "below normal" rainfall (90 to 97 per cent of LPA), 58 per cent probability of "near normal" rainfall (98 to 102 per cent of LPA), 18 per cent probability of "above normal" rainfall (103 to 110 per cent of LPA) and four per cent of "excess rainfall" (more than 110 per cent of LPA). Last year, the onset schedule had been disrupted due to an untimely cyclonic circulation that had taken the seam off approaching monsoon currents from South Andamans Sea.

The onset over the Kerala coast was delayed by a week, though the system prevailed to cover the peninsula and the rest of the country in what turned out to be a successful season.

This had prompted fears if the severe cyclone that had lashed the southwest coast just two days back would not prove a spoilsport this time round. But, according to Met officials, the system had developed "well in advance" of the D-day and "moved out of the way" for this year's monsoon system to be affected.

But, most parts of drought-hit Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and even Andhra Pradesh thoroughly benefited from the heavy downpour and the unprecedented wet session triggered by the system.

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