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Friday, May 28, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bearish. Bull domination on Friday is likely to reduce the bear count to a bare minimum thereby neutralising the sentiment reading. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The June month contract opened with a bear gap of around 13 points and went further down by another 17 points. It made an intra-day high of 1,582.80. The June contract moved within a band of 38 points. It closed with a loss of 30 points.

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Bear move on Thursday terminated the uptrend in the May contract. The long trade exited with a loss pf 36 points. Fresh entry levels for long and short are given for the June contract. Bearish trigger level for the June contract is placed closer to its last traded value. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to trigger this level.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. ACC and GAIL interchanged their positions.

Most of the counters in the list are in the sideways mode. Bull domination on Friday could be a threat to the downtrend in GAIL and Tata Steel. Bears are likely to have ample opportunities for Friday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in ACC, CNX IT and State Bank. Selling in Reliance is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Friday is likely to initiate the uptrend in Reliance.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes with Tata Motors moving to the fourth position followed by ONGC and State Bank.

For Friday, all the downtrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, HPCL, ONGC and Reliance. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in State Bank. The best bet is likely to be the selling in ONGC. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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