The Hindu Business Line : Keep a window open to watch the monsoon

Even as Mumbai is trying to pronounce the name of the FM, and markets do a roller-coaster after PC's visit, Jogin, Khan, Sridevi and Dakshinamoorthy converge at their PCs to gossip about stocks. Lend an ear.

Kay: Who is the minister for chatting?

Dax: Our ministers are only listening. How will the market be today?

Jog: Will open firm, taking a clue from Friday closing. But may fall during the week.

Sri: Volumes are low when the market rises. Why?

Kay: Shows low interest in the market, I heard in the chakri.

Jog: What could be the next trigger for rally?

Sri: I'm keeping the window open to watch the progress of monsoon.

Dax: Also watch the Budget gappa and first quarter results.

Sri: Unions are demanding a hike in EPF rates to 12 per cent.

Kya asar hoga?

Kay: Where is the paisa to give high interest? But if you can read tealeaves, this is a signal for an up-move in interest rates.

Jog: Then, banking stocks could come under pressure. Bank of India may see action with its second IPO.

Dax: Banks stocks are giving nice dividend yield.

Sri: In some, dividend yield is more than interest rate on 12 month FD by the same banks. For example, Union Bank, Allahabad Bank, Syndicate Bank and Andhra Bank.

Kay: Never thought you were so much after money, Sri! LOL

Jog: You know what analysts are predicting about Indian markets? :-(

Sri: They were extremely bullish earlier but now reluctant to provide even short-term targets. Our markets could be stuck in a broad trading range for at least the rest of 2004, they say. Some are projecting a next round of rally only by late-2006 or 2007.

Jog: See if you can build a story using these hints: Asian

Electronics - Usha Shah buying - company promoter - 10 per cent stake - IFC Washington...

Kay: Power cut? Be ready for some Eveready.

Dax: Because Big B has started modelling for Eveready torch and batteries? :-)

Jog: Think globally, yaar. Upside target of $60-70 per barrel for crude by next year is not a positive sign. US economy is showing signs of recovery, but interest rate hike may be a worrying factor.

Sri: These factors along with the negative outlook for dollar could act as the next bearish trigger for the US and global markets.

Kay: Fundamentally, India is relatively insulated. Yet, our local stock market would get a jolt if global markets were to tank.

Jog: That's why we can bet on FII flows only when they lack other investing opportunities.

Dax: Uncertain spell appears set to continue till the Budget is announced. Market will yo-yo for some more time. Sri, unless you are an exceedingly brave-heart, it may be best to sit on the sidelines for the moment. JMO

Kay: Don't frighten her, Dax. Oil stocks should do good. Government is likely to hike oil prices by mid June.

Dividend yield by most of the oil companies are also good at current levels.

Jog: I'm drooling over Tisco bonus.

Sri: Oh, I almost forgot my appointment with PC!

* * * * *

Lee, with inputs from Vir, Bad, Nat and Ace.

Send in your views to: Chat@TheHindu.co.in.