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Wednesday, Jun 09, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bearish trend likely

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the opening the June contract gained 13 points. Later on, bears took over and brought down the June contract to a low of 1501.35. However, during the wee hours of the day's trading bull regained strength to recover the day's losses. The June contract closed with a gain of seven points.

The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels. Bullish trigger level for the June contract is placed eight points away from its current level. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to initiate the uptrend in the June contract.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains intact. Tuesday's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter-Reliance.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in M&M, Reliance and Tata Steel. The lone downtrend counter-Tata Power is likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in two counters. The best is likely to be the selling in Tata Steel. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and bearish trigger levels for Tata Steel are placed closer to its closing value. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list in this segment. The ranking of the list had some changes. ONGC moved to the fifth position followed by Tata Motors and Satyam.

For Wednesday, the uptrend in Reliance and the downtrend in Infosys are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in HPCL, Infosys and ONGC. Selling in Tata Steel is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. Sell level for this counter is placed close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Tata Steel.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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