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Thursday, Jun 10, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The near month June contract opened with a gap of around 4 points and further moved by another seven points. Thereafter, bears made a strong comeback and wiped out their early losses. The June contract moved within 24 points and closed around its previous close.

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Initial bull move led to the initiation of the uptrend in the June contract. However, the exit level is placed quite closer to its current level. Bearish trigger level for the June contract remains unchanged.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The top-10 tradable list in this segment underwent a change. ONGC gained entry with the exit of M&M. The ranking of the list had some changes. Reliance moved to the second position and Satyam moved to the fifth position.

Except for the uptrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Selling in ONGC is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its closing value. Bear move on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash Segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list in this segment remains unchanged. Wednesday's market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter-Tata Steel.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the uptrend in HPCL, Reliance and Tata Motors. On the other hand, the downtrend in Infosys and Tata Steel is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, Infosys, State Bank and Tata Steel. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Reliance, Satyam and State Bank. The best among the above is likely to be the buying in Infosys. This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and buy levels for Infosys are placed very close to its current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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