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G. Chandrashekhar

San Francisco , June 11

IT may be too early to say if the worst is over for the global coffee market which has for last five years been buffeted by unsteady production, stagnant consumption and falling prices.

Small growers have been the worst hit. There are feeble signals that indicate the world coffee market may be coming out of its troubles. Aided by an anticipated rebound in Brazilian coffee crop, world coffee production is expected to rise in 2004-05 and improved supplies are forecast to lead to a recovery in exports.

For 2004-05, world coffee production is forecast at 117.7 million bags (60 kg) up 10 per cent or 10.8 million bags over the previous year, according to an assessment made by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Most of the increase is attributable to recovery in Brazil's coffee production.

As world's largest producer and exporter, Brazil dominates the global coffee market.

Production swings in the origin impact the world market. Higher Brazilian output makes the forecast total world coffee supplies 4 per cent higher at 142.6 million bags. Improved supplies are seen driving demand up to 90.1 million bags, 4.5 million bags more than in 2003-04.

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