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Saturday, Jun 12, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bearish.

Bear domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The June contract opened with a bear gap of two points and steadily lost during the day's trading. It registered an intra-day low of 1,486.50 after making a high of 1,526.90.

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Bears capitalised the day's entire move leaving the bulls with no opportunity to recover. June contract closed lower with a strong bearish note.

Bear domination during the day initiated the downtrend in the June contract. In the normal course of trading on Monday, the prevailing downtrend is likely to continue. Bullish trigger level for the June contract is placed slightly away from its current level.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradable list underwent a change.

M&M gained entry with the exit of HPCL. Satyam moved to the fourth position and ONGC to the eighth position. The exit level for the long position in HPCL is placed at Rs 338.70.

For Monday, the downtrend in CNX IT and M&M are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC and Tata Power. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT and M&M.

The best among the above is likely to be ONGC. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the downtrend in ONGC.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in this segment had a change. The ranking of the list had some changes.

ONGC moved to the fourth position followed by State Bank of India and Tata Motors. The uptrend in HPCL is likely to be terminated at Rs 342.25.

Bull pressure on Monday is likely to terminate the downtrend in GAIL and State Bank of India. Bulls are unlikely to have any opportunity for Monday's trading. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC and Tata Steel. Between the two, the best bet is likely to be ONGC.

Sell level for ONGC is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Monday is likely to trigger the downtrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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