The Hindu Business Line : A Greater China that will dominate

THE signs in Shanghai airport directing those who have just landed say ``International and Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan." Travellers from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are not domestic passengers but neither do they seem to be international. What are they? The seeming confusion give you an inkling of the vision of the leaders of the People's Republic of China, tempered with a dose of reality. To further the confusion, of course, Taiwan is officially known as ``Republic of China''. Isn't Hong Kong part of mainland China now? Then why would it be `international'?

The unfolding of these events will lead to a China that will not just be an economic superpower but one that may well dominate the world into the future.

A counter in the arrival area of the airport and before immigration provides residents of Taiwan their visa for entry into China. Taiwanese are welcomed for all the investment they have made in the mainland, giving a big boost to the Chinese economy, especially in the early days of the liberalisation. China only wishes that Taiwan's political leaders were as cooperative as their businessmen.

Hong Kong was handed back to China by the UK in July 1997 with the promise that it would be, at least for 50 years, a Special Administrative Region under a ``one country, two systems'' policy. Chinese leaders assured Hong Kong's residents that their freedom and systems evolved over the years of British rule would be maintained.

Yet, China's leaders find it difficult to keep their fingers off the territory. Recent events from the way Hong Kong's leaders have been anointed, and the territory's decisions have been manipulated, have been a cause for much concern. Macau, handed back by the Portuguese in 1999, is also designated an SAR.

In case you fear China's power into the future, its leaders and intellectuals work overtime to assure the world that they are not a threat but an opportunity. Just look at the way we cooperate within our neighbours, they say.

We are running trade deficits with countries in the region and, thus, they are all benefiting from our growth. But every time Taiwan does something that Beijing does not like, the public relations machine works overtime to push Taiwan back into its position as an economic power but a political zero on the international plane. Beijing pulls out its assurances received from various superpowers of a ``one China'' policy. The US formally does not have any diplomatic relations with Taiwan although it is not an economic outcaste the way Cuba is. The US ambivalence in the way to treat Taiwan is reflected even in the CIA's Web site. Their World Factbook, which provides extensive reports on all countries, lists Taiwan after the alphabetical listing of all countries is complete. Almost no nation has direct diplomatic relations with Taiwan. When Taiwan, in May 2004, tried to get into the WHO, China turned all the screws to keep it out. We are there to help the nation, it said. There is no need for Taiwan to join the WHO when it is not a separate country. An editorial in the official China Daily snorted, ``The fact that Chen (Taiwan's president) continues his provocations to invite force spells out the precondition for himself.''

If we take the Greater China point of view, and add the economies of mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, we get an economic super powerhouse.

China is already the seventh largest economy based on market exchange rates and jumps to second place if reckoned on the basis of purchasing power parity rates (which compensate for price differences between countries).

The other three countries add about 10 per cent to the mainland's GDP (on Purchase Power Parity basis), but can add 80 per cent to its reserves to bring it up to about $790 billion (Rs 35,55,000 crore). A book on China Business, published by the China International Communication Centre, has a table listing the provinces and regions of China. Apart from Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan is already listed there as ``Taiwan Province". They are just waiting for official confirmation.

The US has a limited window as the world's sole super power. Greater China is close at its heels.

English, a growth business

A student walked up to me in the English Corner just inside the west gate of Renmin University in Beijing and introduced himself. ``My English name is Jack." Many Chinese get English names when they first begin learning English. Their teachers, if expatriates from English-speaking countries, randomly assign English names to their students to save themselves the trouble of learning the Chinese names of their students. And quite often, the students adopt those names as their own `English' name for the rest of their lives.

Catching on, other students learning English elsewhere, have decided that it makes sense for them to also have English names. Although the Chinese have a practice of putting their last names first, when they write their names in English, they reverse it to make it easy for others.

The English corner at Renmin University attracts scores on Friday nights. Situated amidst a landscaped garden, it is a popular spot in Beijing for those wishing to practice English. They begin to gather at about 5 p.m. and stay as long as there is someone to speak English with. I left at about 11 p.m. and there were still several groups gathered in the area. When I walked into that part of the garden where a few people had already gathered in scattered groups, I was immediately surrounded by about 15 and became the focus of a new group. People wander about, joining and leaving groups depending on the conversation and their interest.

I was peppered with questions about where I was from and what I was doing there. Their eagerness to learn about my views and practice conversation was genuinely engaging.

A loudspeaker announcement blared in Chinese and everyone hurriedly moved to a side. It turned out that what I thought was a nicely-designed gathering plaza was actually dancing fountains which were going to be turned on very soon. Without skipping a beat, the group led me to a side so our conversation could continue.

We covered a range of topics that included democracy in India (election reports were triggering interest), religion, American policies in Iraq, and what I thought of Beijing. We discussed economic development models, poverty, and educational systems.

To my surprise, the group was not just composed of students from Renmin. It turns out that the location makes it attractive for students from other universities in the area to come, apart from professionals. I had a journalist, a software engineer, a geography professor, and a couple of business executives joining our group at different points of time.

The Chinese Government has made a big push to get its people to learn English. There is an increasing recognition that better access to the world can come from skills in this language and it is being introduced extensively at early stages in the school system.

Professors are beginning to see younger students, just entering the university, better at the language than older students just graduating. Faculty are being encouraged to try teaching in English in their classes, and some of them, even if they do not lecture in English, have begun using English textbooks.

Given the single-minded devotion to be a world power of the autocracy that rules China, I wonder if it will not be too long before we see English language teachers as another major export of that country.

(The author is professor of international business and strategic management at Suffolk University, Boston, US. His Internet address is cgopinat@suffolk.edu)

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