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Thursday, Jun 17, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Initial gains not held

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The June contract opened four points above Tuesday's close and went further up by another 14 points. Thereafter, bears took over and wiped out their early losses.

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The June contract registered an intra-day low of 1479.55 after making a high of 1510. It closed with a loss of around five points with respect to previous close.

Initial bull move during the day initiated the uptrend in the June contract.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate the initiated long position in the June contract. Bearish trigger level for the June contract is now placed quite closer to its last traded value.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged.

Most of the counters in the list are in the sideways mode for the second successive trading day.

For Thursday, the uptrend in CNX IT, ONGC and Reliance are likely to be under threat.

Bears are likely to have opportunities in as much as seven counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

Selling in Tata Power is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash Segment: The top-10 tradable list in this segment underwent a change. Tata Power gained entry with the exit of Canara Bank. The ranking of the list had a total revamp. Wednesday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter - Tata Motors.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list.

The lone downtrend counter - State Bank is likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Satyam and Tata Steel.

The best bet is likely to be the selling in Tata Motors. This counter is in the sideways mode.

Sell level for Tata Motors is placed within three rupees from its last traded price. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to initiate the downtrend in Tata Motors.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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