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Wednesday, Jun 23, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Sideways movement

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Bull domination on Wednesday is likely to reduce the bear count to a bare minimum, thereby changing the sentiment reading to bullish.

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Nifty Futures Recommendation: During the morning session of Tuesday's trading, the June contract moved up by 13 points. Thereafter, bears took charge of the day's proceedings. The June contract moved within a band of 22 points, registering an intra-day low of 1,467.50. It closed just a point above Monday's close.

Bears were successful in initiating the downtrend in the June contract. The exit level for the initiated short position is placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate the downtrend in June contract. Bullish trigger level for the June contract has also been moved closer.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top 10 tradable list remains undisturbed. Trading activity in Bank of Punjab was quite hectic with more than 2,480 trades.

Bull domination on Wednesday could be a threat to most of the downtrend counters in the tradable list. On the other hand, the uptrend in CNX IT is likely to be terminated.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in M&M, Satyam and Tata Steel. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in CNX IT. The best among the above is likely to be the buying in Satyam.

This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and bullish trigger levels for this counter is placed within four rupees from its closing value. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash Segment: The top 10 tradable list in this segment underwent a change with Bank of Punjab gaining entry with the exit of GAIL. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The downtrend in GAIL is likely to be terminated at 169.75. Except for the downtrend in ONGC and Bank of Punjab, all other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in Satyam, SBI and Tata Steel. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Infosys. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the downtrend.

The exit and buy levels are placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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