The Hindu Business Line : Winds keep rain clouds to north of the Vindhyas

Weather watchers are eagerly looking Baywards for the next low to take shape, as the Bay of Bengal systems alone would have the desired `pull' effect to draw the winds and trigger the next wet spell in the peninsula. Arabian Sea systems can rain it down provided the prevailing winds change direction to being monsoon-friendly westerlies.

Mr M.D. Ramachandran, Director, Met Office, Thiruvananthapuram, told Business Line that the immediate provocation for the end-June week going mostly dry was the fact that the second monsoon spell, which set in on June 28, lost direction and petered out in the South.

The winds blowing in the north/north-west direction in turn ensured that the rain belt shifted to the North and further to the North-East. As far as to the foothills of the Himalayas as on Tuesday, where it was raining buckets.

The lull is expected to continue for some more days in the South, unless favourable weather conditions develop on any of the two sides of the peninsula, Mr Ramachandran said. This, however, is not to rule out the occurrence of "isolated heavy falls" in some places during the period under reference, which is in keeping with the spin-off effects of the larger monsoon phenomenon.

As on Tuesday, there was no sign of any activity that could be expected to evolve into a full-scale system bringing rains to the South. As per the official India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather bulletin for the next 24 hours, the upper air cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood lay centred over Northeast Rajasthan and extended up to 1.5 km above sea level.

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea continued to persist, extending between 3.6 km and 5.8 km above sea level. The axis of monsoon passed through Ferozepur, Delhi, Kanpur, Gaya, Cooch Behar and further eastwards to the total exclusion of the South.

Under its influence, rain or thundershowers have been forecast in Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal, the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.

As for the South, rains would be confined to Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep. The IMD outlook indicated an increase in rainfall activity over the Northeastern States and along the foothills of the Himalayas.

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