The Hindu Business Line : Low-pressure holds key to monsoon revival

A `feeble low' taking shape over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday holds key to the revival of the southwest monsoon, which has been following an erratic course in the northern parts of the country during the past two weeks.

The evolving low-pressure system seems to have also lifted spirits in the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has reaffirmed its forecast for a `normal season' for the year.

Speaking to Business Line, Dr M. Rajeevan, Director - Forecasting, IMD, Pune, said: "With monsoon showing signs of revival, we should imagine the system conforming to the normal. The IMD stands by its long-range forecast made earlier this year".

Dr Rajeevan admitted that monsoon performance had been `very bad' during the past week. "But, things have changed now. For instance, many parts in the southern peninsula have received good precipitation during the last three-to-four days".

Reacting to report suggesting a throwback to year 2002 when the monsoon flattered to deceive, he said he did not see any `early signs' of a drought. The lull in activity was an integral part of every monsoon season. Monsoon behaviour has always been intriguing, to say the least.

The low-pressure area in the Bay was expected to become well-marked, and move further into the land bringing good rainfall to Central India. But things did not augur well for the key rice and oil seed-growing North West India, particularly Punjab and Haryana. These areas would have to wait for some more days for the first few showers of the season.

Apart from rice and oil seeds, coarse cereals such as maize and cotton and sugar cane are among the major crops sown in the monsoon season and harvested in the following winter.

As on Tuesday, the axis of the seasonal trough passed through Ferozepur, Karnal, Lucknow and Hazaribagh before merging into the centre of the low-pressure area. The official IMD forecast for the next 24 hours said rain or thundershowers are likely in East and West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh in the north, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and Orissa in the east, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and Kerala in the south and Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra in the west.

Outlook for the two subsequent days indicated increase in rainfall activity in East Central India.

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