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Thursday, Jul 15, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bearish.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to further strengthen the prevailing bearish sentiment. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bullish.

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Nifty futures recommendation: During the open of Wednesday's trading, the July contract gained five points.

Thereafter, bears took over and wiped out their early losses. The July contract moved within a band of 25 points registering an intra-day low of 1505.00. It closed with a loss of 15 points with respect to the previous close.

Bear domination during the day led to the termination of the uptrend in the July contract. The long trade exited with a loss of 37 points. Bearish trigger level for July contract is placed within five points from its last traded value. Bullish trigger level for the July contract is placed quite far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged.

For those still holding long position in Infosys may do so with the stop loss placed at 1414.75.

Bull domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the downtrend in ONGC, Reliance and Tata Motors. On the other hand, the uptrend in CNX IT and Satyam are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in State Bank and Tata Steel.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level.

Bull move on Thursday has the potential to trigger the uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged. Bears were successful in initiating the downtrend in the recommended counter — Tata Power.

Except for the downtrend in Reliance, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in five counters.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Maruti and State Bank.

Selling in Maruti is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode.

Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 4 from its last traded price.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to initiate the downtrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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