The Hindu Business Line : WTO talks heading towards crucial stage

Last night, this was reflected in the statement issued by the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), who warned that failure to agree on draft guidelines for global trade talks by end of this month could stall the talks ``for years''. And yet no eyebrows have been raised as the consensus perception in informed circles is that this is the last chance for the world trade talks and the consequences of failure are "mind bogging''.

"The scenario, despite such rhetoric is not so pessimistic", India's Ambassador to WTO in Geneva, Mr K.M. Chanhdrashekhar, told Business Line that India is working hard to finalise the G-20 draft on current WTO talks and seeking a consensus to ensure that a corrective position paper appears.

Although, other countries have taken a more negative view, Mr Chanhdrashekhar said that the current draft was disappointing and needed much more work to make it acceptable. He is optimistic that a consensus may emerge in final analysis.

As the WTO Secretary General, Mr Supachai Panitchpakdi, told representatives of the WTO's 147 member states at a meeting to discuss draft guidelines: "The future of DDA (Doha Development Agenda) where the agreement can help lift living standards round the world, will be determined by what we do in the next two weeks." Mr Chanhdrashekhar also echoed this sentiment.

Although developed countries like Canada have expressed "serious concerns" on the agricultural texts, discussions are afoot to find "commonality of purpose'' which will be reflected in new position papers. Brazil leads G-20 countries, which includes India, China and South Africa. They are working with the Group of 90 mostly small poorer nations and are trying to evolve a common consensus strategy. It remains to be seen if an accord can be reached this month. Obviously, success could be rated as an historic achievement and failure could be a traumatic disaster for all concerned. Hence, it is in interest of all concerned — both developing and developed world — to ensure that a commonality of strategy and purpose is soon identified and agreed upon.

According to local analysts, "This is no more a utopian, academic exercise to suit various political pressure groups, particularly in developed countries, especially in the current election period in the western countries."

An editorial writer wrote: "WTO members action in next two weeks will show whether they still have any appetite for global liberalisation or have lost stomach for the fight. The outcome will cortically affect worldwide confidence in an institution (WTO) that remains despite all its flows, the foremost embodiment of the principles of multilateral cooperation."

This is perhaps the heart of the matter and only incurable optimistic can serious believe that it could survive a third debacle, after negative outcome WTO trade talks, at Seattle USA in 1999 and Cancun, Mexico last December.

The third failure can prompt the US to retreat in another round of self-imposed isolation. The Bush administration's track record, so far on global trade talks has been, to say the least "patchy and often disruptive".. The European Union has tried to emerge as a "balancing factor' but the EU has consistently lacked political clout and mercantile zeal to make it all work. The expanded European Union of 25 member states from former 15 has yet to develop independent European oriented global political and strategic perspectives. All this is in offing but for practical purposes, the EU has yet to evolve its strategic global clout.

The Group of 20 nations led by Brazil, China, India and South Africa are in process of fulfilling this void and Indian officials one talks to in Brussels and Geneva, feel quietly confident that a consensus of a sort will emerge before the end of this month.