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Thursday, Jul 22, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open of Wednesday's trading the July contract lost around five points. Later on, bulls regained control of the day's trading. The July contract moved within a band of 49 points registering an intra-day high of 1594.70. Bulls capitalised the day's entire move. July contract closed higher with a strong bullish note.

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Bull domination during the day led to the initiation of the uptrend in the July contract. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the initiated long position is likely to continue. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the July contract are placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. Infosys gained entry with the exit of Tata Power. The ranking of the list had some changes. ONGC moved to the sixth position followed by Maruti and M&M.

The uptrend in Tata Power is likely to be terminated at Rs 253.95.

Bull domination on Thursday could be a threat to the prevailing downtrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the uptrend in ONGC, Reliance and Satyam is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

Buying in Tata Motors is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged. Wednesday's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in State Bank.

Except for Punjab Bank and Tata Steel, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Maruti, ONGC, Satyam and State Bank. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Power.

The best among the above is likely to be the selling in State Bank. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and bearish trigger levels are placed quite closer to its current level. Bear move on Thursday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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