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Friday, Jul 23, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the reading in its favour. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment may be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the near-month July contract lost around 15 points. Later on, the bulls made a strong comeback, wiping out their early losses. The July contract moved within a band of 26 points, registering an intra-day high of 1604. It closed with a loss of eight points over Wednesday's close.

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The long position in the July contract remains intact. The exit level for the long position is now placed at break-even level. In the normal course of trading on Friday, the long position is likely to continue. Bearish trigger levels for the July contract are still placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no changes in the top-10 tradable list. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance and Tata Motors. The exit level for the uptrend in Tata Power is placed at 264.20.

For Friday, the uptrend in CNX IT, ONGC, Satyam and Tata Motors are likely to be threatened. The lone downtrend counter, M&M, may be safe.

The bears are likely to have opportunities in six counters. A lone buying opportunity may exist in Infosys. Selling in Tata Motors is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. This counter is in the uptrend and its exit and bearish trigger levels are placed closer to its current level. A bear move on Friday can reverse the prevailing uptrend.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Thursday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter, State Bank.

None of the counters in the list is in the downtrend. Bear domination on Friday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ONGC, Punjab Bank, Satyam and Tata Power. Selling opportunities may exist in Maruti, ONGC and Tata Motors. A lone buying opportunity is likely in Tata Motors. Selling in Tata Motors is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. The bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 3 from its last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday may trigger the downtrend in Tata Motors.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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