The Hindu Business Line : To all those missing daughters

ON that fateful Friday last week, the Kumbakonam calamity was already top on international news feeds, reporting of the blaze in an ill-fated girls school. And for India-watchers it was one more occurrence that reaffirmed their view about our country: That we are callous to a whole gender.

For them, we not only symbolise snake-charmers and maharajahs, we also destroy foetuses that promise to yield girl babies; heap scorn on them if they manage to be born, pull them out of school to do household work, underfeed them and ignore their health, constrain them to no end, veil them up for pompous marriages, and discount bride-burning cases as some kitchen accident.

Here is a book dedicated to all those missing daughters and daughters-in-law: Bare Branches, by Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer, published by The MIT Press (http://mitpress.mit.edu). "Your absence impoverishes our world, and we grieve for the loss," note the authors before delving into "the security implications of Asia's surplus male population." What is the problem if there are too many men, most men may retort?

Here is authors' answer: "Historically, high male-to-female ratios often trigger domestic and international violence." That's because "young unmarried males who lack stable social bonds" can be `the most violent'; and at the very top, a skewed ratio can lead to "authoritarian political systems". China and India, which together represent some two fifths of the world population, suffer from this distorted proportion.

"Through offspring sex selection these countries are acquiring a disproportionate number of low-status young adult males, called `bare branches' by the Chinese," add the authors. The imbalance that prevails now is "larger than in any other historical period."

`Masculinisation' of sex ratios in Asia is an "overlooked megatrend", and more alarming is that these ratios are "artificially altered". As per UN's data of 2000, Europe's male-female ratio is 93.1 whereas Asia's is a 104.4, with males outnumbering females by nearly 80 million.

The world average is 101.3, that is, 3054 million males as against 3016 million females. A striking table compiled by the authors using census data computes the number of missing women as 90,292,573 for the following countries put together: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Pakistan, South Korea and Taiwan.

"China accounts for 45 per cent and India for 43 per cent of the total number of missing females, and the other five countries account for the remaining 12 per cent."

The book notes, "In India, the birth of a son is greeted with much fanfare — drumming, singing, and proud public announcements — whereas the birth of a daughter is quietly observed."

Current statistics reveal that Kerala is at the lowest, with a male ratio of about 94.5, while at the very top come Daman and Diu with 141. Chandigarh comes next with 129. In the south, Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Pondicherry have ratios ranging from 99.9 to 102.3, far below the national ratio of 107.17.

A detailed table looks at which state is contributing how much to the tally of missing females. UP comes top with a share of 25 per cent, or 89 lakh females who do not exist; this when the state's share of total population is only 16.17 per cent. Next comes Maharashtra with 11 per cent, Bihar with 9.65 percent, West Bengal with 7.8 per cent, and Madhya Pradesh with a 7.12 per cent share. The only state to have a negative share is Kerala: Its share of total population is 3.1 but its contribution to missing females is minus 2.54 per cent. For Tamil Nadu, these numbers are 6.05 and 1.2. Dangerously, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi have bigger `missing' percentages than what share they enjoy in total population.

It was a 1996 study by the World Bank, World Health Organisation and Harvard University that stated that Indian women "face an appallingly high risk of dying in fires." In 1990 alone, 87,000 women (compared with 37,000 men) died in fires. 53,000 of those deaths were of women between the ages of 15 to 44. India's bare branches reside primarily in Assam, Bihar, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, and West Bengal, according to the book. "Together they make up a region referred to as India's `Wild West'. The region is characterised by the same kind of lawlessness that flourished in the nineteenth-century American Wild West, which also had abnormally high sex ratios." Citing published articles in the Indian media, the authors point out how this translates into crime in politics. A table, therefore, you may not like to see shows states in the first column, sex ratio in the second and murder rate in the third.

Governments are waking up to the problem. An instance that the authors narrate is of a candidate in the Chinese local elections promising thus: "I will take care of all the bachelors who do not have the income to find a wife. I will make you rich!" It could be argued that the fiscal policy may tailor tax provisions to repair the ratio.

So, where does the `calculus' leave us? Two broad predictions are offered by the authors, as likely trends in twenty-first century: "First, the prognosis for the development of full democracy in China is poor, and India's ability to maintain its democratic form of government is likely to be challenged." Grim. But does that explain hung Parliaments and border conflicts too? Perhaps, yes, because bare branches are "motivated by issues involving national pride and martial prowess." So, "conflict is often an effective mechanism by which governments can send bare branches away from national population centres, possibly never to return."

Economics@TheHindu.co.in

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To all those missing daughters