The Hindu Business Line : Disappointing draft

THE DRAFT FRAMEWORK agreement circulated to World Trade Organisation members has crystallised fears that the developed economies, mainly the US and the EU, will not recede from their stand on the contentious issues figuring in the Doha Round, even if deadlines are missed, with serious consequences for the multilateral trade liberalisation process. As the WTO Director-General, Dr Supachai, pointed out at the Sao Paulo Unctad conference last month, agreement on a framework package by July end is indispensable if "any significant progress" is to be made "during the remainder of the year".

Significantly, the draft had been produced after the rich economies had made all the right political noises; clearly the negotiators are working on specific briefs far divorced from the public positions that members such as the US and the EU have adopted. Also, Dr Supachai has been egging on the negotiators encouraged by "a new level of political commitment", in particular the G-8 instructing "their Ministers to finalise the framework by July and to put negotiations back on track". But the real picture was provided by the Agriculture Committee chairman when he said that he was "nowhere near ready" to produce a draft on agriculture and that, importantly, the political message reportedly sent to the negotiators by their governments was "still maturing". Cearly, that "maturing" has not happened and, on substantive points relating to agriculture, Washington and Brussels have stuck to their old positions; the much-publicised "concessions"being more cosmetic than anything else. Little real progress has been made on the "domestic support" front; revealing is the effort to alter the definitional parameters with the suggestion that Article 6.5 of the Agreement on Agriculture be "modified" to introduce "an alternative criterion for doling out direct payments to farmers". Similarly, on the export subsidies issue, the EU's lack of political will is obvious, with the draft not committing on a cut-off point for such sops. The hope is that acceptable amendments to the draft will emerge soon. It would have been so much better had the concessions been made during the discussions, leaving more time for other less contentious, but equally relevant, issues.

In the areas of non-agricultural market access, Singapore issues, implementation and services, no breakthrough has been achieved; the negotiators will have to work overtime to bring in changes acceptable to the WTO General Council, paving the way for a framework agreement. What all this boils down to is that the developing countries will be under pressure to produce the rabbit of an acceptable draft from the hat — a situation that may see the poor (or some of them) cave in to inducements offered by the rich to toe their line. There is no alternative but to lay bare this strategy and defeat it, a campaign which India along with Brazil and China will have to spearhead. Already, New Delhi has described the draft as disappointing, as it pays more attention to the concerns of the developed than of the developing economies. The question is: Will Mr Kamal Nath be able to repeat the commendable work done by his predecessor, Mr Arun Jaitley, at Cancun?