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Tuesday, Jul 27, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS prevailed over Monday's trading though the market opened with a weaker note. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish with a marginal increase in the bull count.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month July contract lost around 16 points during the initial hour of Monday's trading. Later, no bulls made a strong comeback and wiped out their early losses. The July contract moved within a band of 36 points registering an intra-day high of 1614.45. It closed higher with a strong bullish note.

The long position in the July contract survived the early bear pressure. The exit and bearish trigger levels are placed at the same level. However, these levels are placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The most active counters list and their ranking remains intact. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance and Tata Motors. The exit level for the long position in Tata Power is placed at 265.45.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Maruti and State Bank. On the contrary, the downtrend in CNX IT and Satyam are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have an opportunity in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, ONGC and State Bank. Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate the uptrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: Infosys and M&M gained entry to the top-10 tradable list with the exit of Punjab Bank and Tata Power. The ranking of the list had a total revamp with Tata Steel moving to the top slot.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. For Tuesday, the uptrend in M&M and Maruti are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, ONGC and Satyam. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Infosys. The best among the above is likely to be the buying in ONGC. Buy level for this counter is placed within Rs 3 from its current level. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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