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Thursday, Jul 29, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Sideways movement

K. Premkumar

WEDNESDAY'S market action witnessed a range-bound movement in the active counters. The sentiment reading of the tradeable counters stands neutral. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bearish. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bullish.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open of Wednesday's trading, the July contract gained seven points. Bulls failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bear pressure. The July contract moved within a band of 20 points. It closed just a point lower than its previous close.

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Bears were successful in terminating the uptrend in the July contract. The long trade exited within a profit of 23 points. Fresh entry levels are given for August contract. Both bullish and bearish trigger levels are equally poised from the current level. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: The active counters list and their ranking remains unchanged. The top three counters in this segment were Reliance, Tata Steel and State Bank.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate the uptrend in CNX IT, Infosys and Tata Steel. On the other hand, the downtrend in M&M and Maruti is likely to be under threat. Thursday being the expiry day for the July contract, entry levels for all the counters are given for August contract. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in M&M, Satyam and Tata Motors. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, Infosys and Tata Motors. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to initiate the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradeable list in this segment remains intact. The ranking of the list had few changes. Reliance moved to the second position followed by Tata Motors and Maruti.

Bull domination on Thursday could be a threat to the downtrend in M&M, Maruti and State Bank. Otherwise, the uptrend in Infosys and Tata Steel is likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in M&M, Satyam and Tata Motors. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Motors. The best among the above is likely to be the buying in Satyam.

This counter is in the sideways mode and has closed at 329.30. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to trigger the uptrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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