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Friday, Jul 30, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls reign

K. Premkumar

BULLS prevailed Thursday's trading activity but could not gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bullish. Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the August contract lost seven points thereafter bulls took charge of the day's proceedings. The August contract moved within a band of 30 points registering an intra-day high of 1607.45. It closed higher with a gain of 20 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels. Bullish trigger level for the August contract is now placed very close to its current level. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in the August contract. Bearish trigger level for the August contract is still placed far away.

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Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The top three counters in the list were Tata Steel, Reliance and Tata Motors.

Most of the counters in the tradable list are in the sideways mode as the July contract has expired. For Friday, the uptrend in Maruti and Satyam are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in as much as seven counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed within four rupees from its closing value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The most active counters list and their ranking in this segment remain unchanged. Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in the recommended counter — Satyam.

Bull pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the downtrend in ONGC and Maruti. On the other hand, the uptrend in Reliance is likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in M&M, ONGC and State Bank.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in M&M and Satyam.

Buying in State Bank is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode and has closed at Rs 446. Buy level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bull move on Friday has the potential to initiate the uptrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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