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Saturday, Jul 31, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull onslaught

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in charge of Friday's trading. Their supremacy triggered the uptrend in most tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Monday will neutralise the sentiment reading.

Nifty futures recommendation: The August contract opened around its previous close and steadily gained during the day's trading. It made an intra-day high of 1,629.00 after making a low of 1,606.05. The August contract closed for the week with a gain of 19 points.

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Bull domination during the day initiated the uptrend in the August contract. In the normal course of trading on Monday, the uptrend is likely to continue. The bearish trigger level for the August contract is placed far away and this is unlikely to be triggered on Monday.

Stock futures recommendation: The most active counters list in this segment remains unchanged. ONGC moved to the fifth position followed by M&M and Satyam.

Except for CNX IT, all other counters in the list are in the uptrend.

Bear pressure on Monday can be a threat to five out of the nine prevailing uptrend counters in the list. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in M&M, Maruti and State Bank. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in CNX IT. The best among the above is likely to be State Bank. The exit and bearish trigger levels for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear domination on Monday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list in this segment. The ranking of the list had some changes. Tata Motors moved to the second position followed by Reliance and SAIL.

Maruti is the only counter in the sideways mode with all the other counters in the uptrend. Bear domination on Monday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list. Bears are likely to have an opportunity in Maruti and State Bank. Buying opportunity is likely to exist in Maruti. The best bet is likely to be the buying in Maruti. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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