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Tuesday, Aug 03, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls march ahead

K. Premkumar

BULLS prevailed over Monday's trading activity. The sentiment reading continues to remain bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the near month August contract lost around 11 points. Later on, bulls regained their strength and wiped out their early losses.

The August contract moved within a band of 23 points registering an intra-day high of 1635.80. It closed with a gain of 10 points with respect to Friday's close.

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The long position in the August contract remains undisturbed. The exit level for the long position is now out of the danger zone. Bearish trigger level for the August contract has been changed. Strong bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in the August contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top 10 tradable counters list remains unchanged. The ranking the list had some changes. M&M moved to the fifth position followed by Satyam and ONGC.

Trading activity in IOC was quite hectic on Monday with more than 2300 trades.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ONGC, M&M, Maruti and Tata Motors. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in CNX IT, Satyam and SBI.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best bet for Tuesday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The most active counters and their rankings in the cash segment remain unchanged. Monday's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter, Maruti.

Except for SBI, all the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Bear pressure on Tuesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in M&M, Maruti, Satyam and SBI. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in SBI. 0The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Maruti.

The exit and sell trigger levels for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear move on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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