Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Thursday, Aug 05, 2004
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Thursday, Aug 05, 2004 |
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Agri-Biz & Commodities
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Climate & Weather Bay systems blamed for lack of July rains Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Aug 4 FEWER than required number of active low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal and disadvantageous positioning of those that materialised may have contributed to the failure of the southwest monsoon during the crucial month of July. At least three to four Bay-based systems are required to exert the `pull' effect on the moisture-laden winds blowing into the mainland, according to Mr M.D. Ramachandran, Director, India Meteorological Department, Thiruvananthapuram. Ideally, these should originate from around South and South Central Bay around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and traverse a northward trajectory to cross the mainland. While doing so, the systems lead to intense precipitation across the peninsular and central India, even reaching up to the Northwest region. Follow-up systems from the Bay and the western disturbances, helped by the monsoon trough straddling the western coast, ensure that the monsoon covers the rest of the country as well. Not only was the numbers few this time round, the positioning of the systems was also disadvantageous vis-à-vis the mainland, Mr Ramachandran said. The `feeble' low-pressure systems that originated in the Bay on July 13 and July 22 are two cases in point. The first one was traced to the Northwest Bay off Orissa coast, which crossed the mainland on July 16 and weakened into a cyclonic circulation over Northwest Orissa. The prevailing winds that bring in moisture also had failed to fall into the established pattern. The second system had registered itself over the Northwest Bay and weakened on crossing the mainland on the 25th. Both these systems were not `productive' as would normally be expected of them mainly because they had originated at locations closer than usual to the mainland. They had lost the sting due to the lesser distance traversed as they entered the mainland, failed to sustain themselves, and dissipated. As on Wednesday, the southwest monsoon has become `active' once again leading to intense rainfall along the west coast, central India and the northwest. This can be attributed to the fact that the well-marked system off the Orissa coast, again not far off from the coast, has been acting in tandem with corresponding atmospheric disturbances over Rajasthan and Gujarat. The combined effect will hold for at least two to three more days, Mr Ramachandran said.
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