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Tuesday, Aug 17, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS maintained their pressure during the initial hours of day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain strongly bearish. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hours of Monday's trading, the August contract lost around 14 points. Thereafter, bulls made a strong comeback and wiped out their early losses. The August contract moved within a band of 25 points. It closed with a gain of 10 points over Friday's close.

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The short position in the August contract remains intact. However, this is likely to be under threat for Tuesday. The exit level is placed within two full points from its current level. Bullish trigger level for the August contract has also been moved closer. Bull domination on Tuesday has the potential to trigger these levels.

Stock futures recommendation: The most active counters list underwent a change. ACC gained entry with the exit of Wipro. Satyam moved to the fifth position followed by M&M and ONGC. The downtrend in Wipro is likely to be terminated at Rs 544.05.

Except for the downtrend in Tata Motors and the uptrend in Tata Steel, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. The best bet is likely to be the buying in Satyam. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing downtrend in Satyam.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Bear pressure on Monday triggered the downtrend in the recommended counter — Infosys.

Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the tradable list. The uptrend in SAIL and Tata Steel are likely to be safe. Bears are unlikely to have any opportunity for Tuesday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and buy levels for Satyam are placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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