The Hindu Business Line : El Nino, if at all, will benefit India: IMD

THE India Meteorological Department (IMD) has played down fears sought to be raised over what is being described as an emerging El Nino weather condition, implying drought in Asia and floods in South America.

Dr M. Rajeevan, Director, Forecasting, IMD, Pune, told Business Line that he suspected if an EL Nino would develop this year at all. Because, this was not exactly the time of the year normally associated with the development of such a condition, he added.

Dr Rajeevan said this in response to Business Line's queries on the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology's assessment that El Nino was "more likely to happen" this year due to a warming up of the central Pacific Ocean.

Even granting that the dreaded weather system was to reveal itself at this time of the year, India need not worry too much about its likely repercussions. For one, the very timing would make it difficult for an evolving El Nino to create any impression on the southwest monsoon, which has entered the last leg.

For another, and a more reassuring one at that, El Nino is normally known to go before a bountiful northeast monsoon. Significantly, this is true as well for the precipitation in Northwest India, some parts of which failed to get adequate rainfall during the ongoing season.

So, looked from both angles, India will only stand to gain from an El Nino in the making. Close on the heels what IMD swears would be a normal southwest monsoon, the country can look forward to "normal to above normal" rainfall during the northeast monsoon as well as the winter that follows, Dr Rajeevan said.