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Saturday, Aug 21, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

FRIDAY'S trading activity triggered the downtrend in most of the tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stand bearish. Bull domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. Otherwise, the prevailing sentiment reading is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The August contract opened five points lower than its previous close and went further down by another 23 points. Bulls failed to make any impact during the day's trading activity. The August contract closed with a loss of 18 points.

The August contract remains in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level is now placed quite closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the downtrend in the August contract. Bullish trigger level for the August contract is placed slightly far away.

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Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradable list in this segment has changed. Infosys gained entry with the exit of M&M. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Reliance.

Bull move on Monday could be a threat to the downtrend in ACC, Reliance and Tata Steel. On the contrary, the uptrend in CNX IT and Infosys is likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have an opportunity in four counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Selling in State Bank is likely to be the best bet for Monday's trading. Bear domination on Monday has the potential to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits in the top-10 tradable list in this segment. The ranking of the list, too, remains the same.

Bull force on Monday is likely to terminate the downtrend in Reliance, State Bank and Tata Steel. Otherwise, the uptrend in Infosys and ONGC is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling opportunities may exist in three counters. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best for Monday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed within two rupees from its closing price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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