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Tuesday, Aug 24, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Further bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to reduce the bull count to bare minimum. Otherwise, the prevailing sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The August contract initially lost around 15 points thereafter bulls made a strong comeback and recouped most of their losses. The August contract moved within a band of 22 points. It closed with a loss of 5 points with respect to Friday's close.

Bears were successful in triggering the downtrend in the August contract. In the normal course of trading on Tuesday, the initiated short position is likely to continue. Strong bull domination on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the downtrend in the August contract.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remain unchanged. For those still holding the short position in M&M may do so with the stop loss placed at Rs 422.90.

Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the uptrend in State Bank is likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in ACC.

The best bet is likely to be the selling in ACC. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in ACC.

Cash Segment: The most active counters list in this segment remains unchanged. The ranking of the list underwent a change. SAIL and Tata Motors interchanged their positions.

Bear move on Tuesday could be a threat to the uptrend in Infosys and Satyam. On the other hand, the downtrend in M&M is likely to be terminated.

Buying opportunity is likely to exist in ONGC.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, ONGC and Satyam.

The best among the above is likely to be the buying in ONGC. Buy level for this counter is placed within a rupee from its closing price.

Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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