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Wednesday, Aug 25, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear-run arrested

K. Premkumar

BULLS took charge of Tuesday's trading activity. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish.

Bull domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The August contract moved within a band of 22 points on Tuesday. Bears were unable to make any impact during the day's trading. The August contract closed with a gain of around 12 points over its previous close.

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Bull domination during the day led to the termination of the downtrend in the August contract. The short trade exited with a loss of 17 points. Bullish trigger level for the August contract is now placed closer to its current level. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in the August contract.

Stock Futures Recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Maruti moved to the sixth position followed by ACC and Infosys.

Bear domination on Wednesday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in State Bank and Tata Motors are likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its closing value. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to initiate the downtrend in Infosys.

Cash: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. Wipro gained entry with the exit of M&M. SAIL moved to the third spot and Tata Motors to the fourth.

Further bull move on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the uptrend in ONGC and Satyam are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, ONGC and Satyam.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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