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Tuesday, Aug 31, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K. Premkumar

BULLS took charge of Monday's trading activity. Their dominance changed the sentiment reading to bullish. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bearish. On the other hand, the prevailing sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month September contract opened with a bull gap of 6 points and went further by another fifteen points. Bull domination during the day left the bears with no opportunity to recover during the day's trading. The September contract closed with a gain of 19 points with respect to Friday's close.

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Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in the September contract. In the normal course of trading on Tuesday, the initiated uptrend is likely to continue. Bearish trigger level for the September contract is placed far away from its current level.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains intact. Bears were triumphant in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter — Satyam.

Bear domination on Tuesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list. Otherwise, the lone downtrend counter — Satyam is likely to be terminated. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in M&M and Satyam. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, ONGC and Reliance.

Buying in M&M is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed within a rupee from its last traded price. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate the uptrend in M&M.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged. Most of the counters in the list are in the uptrend.

Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in Satyam is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Maruti and Satyam. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, ONGC and Reliance.

The best among the above is likely to be buying in Satyam. The exit and bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in Satyam.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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