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Tuesday, Sep 14, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS maintained their pressure on Monday's trading. However, they could not make any gain from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: The September contract opened around its previous close and gained nine points during the mid-session of the day's trading.

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During the close, bears managed to recoup their losses. The September contract moved within a close band of 13 points. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain from the day's trading.

The long position in the September contract remains intact. The exit level for the long position has been moved closer to its current level.

Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the September contract is placed slightly away from its last traded value.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable counters remains unchanged.

The top three traded counters in this segment were Maruti, Reliance and Tata Steel.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the prevailing uptrend counters in the list.

On the other hand, the lone downtrend counter-State Bank is likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

The best bet is likely to be the selling in Maruti. The bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 2 from its closing value. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Maruti.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list in this segment. The ranking of the list too remains intact. Monday's market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in State Bank.

Bear move on Tuesday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list.

On the contrary, the downtrend in ONGC and State Bank are likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

Selling in Maruti is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to initiate the downtrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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