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Wednesday, Sep 15, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

TUESDAY'S market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in a few counters in the tradable list.

However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bullish. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to turn the sentiment reading to bearish.

On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty Futures Recommendation: Initially, the near-month September contract lost around six points. Later on, bulls took charge of the day's proceedings.

The September contract moved within a band of 17 points registering an intra-day high of 1,678.90. It closed with a gain of eight points over its previous close.

The long position in the September contract remains undisturbed. The position is locked-up with a nominal profit of nine points.

In the normal course of trading, the long position is likely to continue on Wednesday. Bearish trigger level for the September contract has also been moved closer.

Stock Futures Recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top 10 tradable list. Maruti, Satyam and Tata Steel were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Except for the downtrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in seven counters.

Buying in ACC is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in sideways mode. Buy level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull domination on Wednesday has the potential to initiate the uptrend in ACC.

Cash Segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top 10 active counters list remains unchanged.

Bears were successful in initiating the downtrend in the recommended counter, Maruti. Except for the initiated downtrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to under threat.

Bears are likely to have opportunity in ONGC, Reliance and Tata Steel.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in M&M, State Bank and Tata Motors. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Tata Steel.

This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and bearish trigger levels for this counter is placed within two rupees from its last traded price. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to reverse the prevailing uptrend in Tata Steel.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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