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Friday, Sep 17, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull sway

K. Premkumar

BULLS took charge of Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish. Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour.

On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month September contract opened with a bear gap of five points. Bears failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bull pressure. The September contract moved within a band of 32 points registering a high of 1699.40. It closed higher with a strong bullish note.

The long position in the September contract remains intact. The long position is locked-up with a decent profit of 15 points. The exit and bearish trigger levels are placed slightly away from its current level. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Friday.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradable list in this segment and their ranking remain unchanged. Tata Steel, Maruti and Satyam were the top three active counters in this segment on Thursday.

Except for the lone downtrend counter Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in as much as seven counters.

Buying in State Bank is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 2 from its closing value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in State Bank.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list too remains intact. Thursday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter-Tata Motor.

Eight out of the ten counters in the list are in the uptrend. Except for the downtrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunities in five counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Motors.

For Friday, buying in Tata Motors is likely to be the best. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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