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Saturday, Sep 18, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull onslaught

K. Premkumar

BULLS maintained their supremacy over Friday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish. Bear domination on Monday is likely to reduce the bull count by a substantial margin thereby neutralising the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The September month contract opened around its previous close and made steady gains during the day's trading. Bull domination during the day left the bears stranded. The September contract moved within a band of 33 points registering an intra-day low of 1699.00. It closed higher for the week with a gain of 31 points over Thursday's close.

The exit level for the long in the September contract is out of the danger zone. The prevailing uptrend in the September contract is unlikely to be disturbed. Both the exit and bearish trigger levels for the September contract are placed quite far away from its current level.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains intact. The ranking of the list had a total revamp. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Motors, Tata Steel and Reliance.

Bear domination on Monday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in ACC and Infosys is likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in ACC and Infosys. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT and Satyam.

The best among the above is likely to be the buying in Infosys. Buy level for this counter is placed closer to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: The top-10 active counters list in this segment remains unchanged. The ranking of the list in total changed with Maruti moving to the top slot. Bulls were successful in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter Tata Motors.

Except for the uptrend in Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. For Monday, traders are left with a lone opportunity on either side of trading. This is likely to exist in SAIL on the long side and Satyam on the short side.

Between the two, the best bet is likely to be the buying in SAIL. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bull domination on Monday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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