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Wednesday, Sep 22, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in total command of Tuesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to reduce the bull count by a substantial margin thereby changing the sentiment reading to bearish.

Nifty futures recommendation: The September contract moved within a band of 27 points registering an intra-day high of 1750.40 after making a low of 1723.60. Bears were unable to make any impact during the day's trading. It closed higher with a strong bullish note.

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The long position in the September contract is locked-up with a profit of around 50 points. Both the exit and bearish trigger levels for the September contract are still placed far away.

These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Wednesday.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. M&M gained entry with the exit of ONGC. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The exit level for the uptrend in ONGC is placed at 723.85.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in ACC and Maruti are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have an opportunity in ACC, Infosys and Maruti. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best for Wednesday trading. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Infosys.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged. The day's move had no impact on the recommended counter — Reliance.

Bear pressure on Wednesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters. On the contrary, the lone downtrend counter - Maruti - is likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

The best bet for Wednesday's trading is likely to be the buying in Infosys. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed just a rupee above its last traded price.

Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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