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Wednesday, Oct 06, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THE market fluctuated within a close band on Tuesday. The day's activity resulted in reducing the bull count marginally. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains strongly bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The October contract opened around its previous close on Tuesday and thereafter lost around ten points. However, bears failed to capitalise on this as they yielded to bull pressure.

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The October contract moved within a band of 21 points. It closed with a gain of around 5 points with respect to Monday's close.

The long position in the October contract remains intact. The exit level for the October contract is placed around the same level. Bearish trigger level for the October contract is still placed far away. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Wednesday.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Motors moved to the second position and Infosys to the seventh position.

Except for Ranbaxy and State Bank, all other counters in the list are in the uptrend. Bear move on Wednesday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Ranbaxy and State Bank. The best bet for Wednesday's trading is likely to be the selling in Ranbaxy. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed within Rs 2 from its current level. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Ranbaxy.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. State Bank and Zee Tele interchanged their positions.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. For Wednesday, four opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Sell level for this counter is placed quite closer to its last traded price. Bear move on Wednesday has the potential to initiate the downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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