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Thursday, Oct 07, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS gained control of Wednesday's trading activity. The day's market action resulted in triggering few downtrend counters in the tradable list.

However, the sentiment reading of tradable counters continues to remain bullish. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

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Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hour, the October month contract gained around 11 points. Thereafter, bears took charge of the day's trading. The October contract moved within a band of 36 points. It closed with a loss of 16 points below its previous close.

The long position in the October contract remains undisturbed. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the uptrend is likely to continue.

However, bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the uptrend in the October contract. Bearish trigger level for the October contract is still placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains intact.

Trading activity in Grasim was quite active on Wednesday with more than 2600 trades.

Bears were successful in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter-Ranbaxy.

Bear domination on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list.

On the other hand, the downtrend in CNX IT, Ranbaxy and Tata Steel are likely to be under threat.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, Satyam and Tata Steel.

Selling in Maruti is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its last traded value. Bear more on Thursday has the potential to initiate the downtrend in Maruti.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list underwent a change. State Bank moved to the ninth position and Zee Tele to the tenth position.

Bear move on Thursday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in Infosys, Satyam and Tata Steel are likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have opportunity in Maruti, State Bank and Tata Motors. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Steel.

Selling in Maruti is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Sell level for this counter is placed within two rupees from its current level. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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