The Hindu Business Line : Move to revamp weather forecast system

THE Department of Science and Technology has proposed a national programme of Extended Range of Monsoon Prediction (ERMP) for more accuracy in long-term monsoon prediction as well as to fine-tune the weather forecasting system.

The department has formed four working groups to look into various components in revamping the long-term monsoon prediction system.

The working groups have been asked to come up with suggestions to work out the observational system requirements for monsoon forecast extending from long-range to short-range. In long-term monsoon prediction, the possibility and nature of the monsoon showers could be predicted at least two to three months ahead. In medium range forecast, the announcements would be made 5 to 10 days ahead of the arrival of monsoon. In short-range predictions, the nature and arrival time of monsoon would be predicted within a timeframe of 24 hours to 48 hours.

Once the ERMP is set up, it is hoped that the meteorologists would be able to predict the arrival and possible variations of the southwest monsoon next year more precisely. Any attempt to perfect the monsoon prediction system in the country is of great relevance as the rains have a major role in deciding the national economic growth. It also plays a role in setting the political and development agenda of the country.

Researchers and scientists from all major weather research institutions under the Indian Meteorological Department, the Indian Space Research Organisation, the National Institute of Oceanography, Indian Institutes of Technology, the Indian Institute of Science, the Monsoon Studies Centre of the Cochin University of Science and Technology and the Andhra Pradesh University are involved in the project.

The project also plans to identify the current and projected Indian weather forecast system and to spot the gap areas in the system. It also aims to evolve a strategy for prioritising the new observation requirements and archiving the data generated by the Indian meteorologists. These data will be made available to operational and research community in the country.

Currently, the weather prediction is made possible by analysing the data generated by 600-odd surface observatories and the upper air observatories including radio-sounding system that are set up in different parts of the country. Of late, meteorologists are monitoring ocean components for making prediction that influences the monsoon system.

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