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Friday, Oct 08, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS prevailed over Thursday's trading activity. However, they could not gain from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bearish.

On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open, the October month contract lost three points, thereafter, bulls took control of the day's proceedings.

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The October contract moved within a band of 26 points registering an intra-day high of 1819.75. It closed with a gain of 20 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

The long position in the October contract remains intact. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the October are still placed far away.

In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Reliance moved to the second position and ONGC to the seventh position.

The top three traded counters in the list were Tata Steel, Reliance and State Bank.

Further bull pressure on Friday could be a threat to the downtrend in CNX IT, Maruti and Ranbaxy. Bear domination on Friday is likely to terminate the prevailing uptrend counters in the list.

For Friday, four opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. Buying in Ranbaxy is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading.

Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Ranbaxy.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remains intact. Bears were successful in triggering the downtrend in the recommended counter — Maruti.

Bear domination on Friday could be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the downtrend in Maruti and Satyam are likely to be terminated.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

Buying in Infosys is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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