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Friday, Oct 15, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls prevail

K. Premkumar

BULLS gained control of Thursday's trading activity. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bearish. Mild bull pressure on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: The October month contract opened five points lower and went further by another nine points. Thereafter, bulls took charge of the day's trading. The October contract moved within a band of 39 points. It closed with a profit of 13 points with respect to its previous close.

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The short position in the October contract remains intact. However, this is likely to be terminated on Friday. The exit level is placed quite closer to its current level. Bullish trigger level for the October contract has also been moved closer. Bull domination on Friday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in the October contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. State Bank moved to the fifth position and Infosys to the seventh position. Trading activity in Mastek was quite hectic on Thursday with more than 1,900 trades.

Bear move on Friday is likely to terminate the uptrend in CNX IT, Infosys and Maruti. On the other hand, the downtrend in State Bank, Tata Motors and Tata Steel are likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Satyam.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list underwent a change. SAIL moved to the top slot followed by Maruti.

Most of the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Bull pressure on Friday could be a threat to most of the downtrend counters in the list.

On the contrary, the lone uptrend counter - Infosys is likely to be terminated. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Reliance. Buying in Zee Tele is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in Zee Tele.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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