The Hindu Business Line : Dip in population growth of 0-4 years age group: Census

"THE child is father of man," William Wordsworth once wrote. The demographic implication of this is that future population sizes are largely a function of the number of children living today. And on this count, there is finally some good news for the country.

The latest census reveals that the total population in the age group of 0-4 years has gone up by just 70.84 lakh between 1991 and 2001, which is less than half of the 1.66-crore increase registered over the preceding decade. The share of children aged below 4 years in India's overall population has dropped from 12.55 per cent in 1981 to 12.17 per cent in 1991 and, further, sharply to 10.73 per cent in 2001. Since the census excluded Assam in 1981 and Jammu & Kashmir in 1991, figures for the two States have been left out to facilitate proper comparison.

Significantly, there are many States where the decline in the 0-4 age group numbers has taken place not just relatively, but in absolute terms too. During 1981-1991, the fall was confined to Kerala and Tamil Nadu, whereas in the subsequent decade, the phenomenon spread to Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa, Tripura, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands .

Simply put, large parts of the country - barring mainly the `bimaru' States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh - are host to a trend of diminishing toddler numbers. And since these children, born after 1996, will form the mainstay of the parental base 15-20 years down the line, it may well be the harbinger of a process of population stabilisation.

"Fertility rates have been coming down, the impact of which is being realised now," said Mr R.G. Mitra, Deputy Registrar General of Census and Tabulation. According to him, the trend is significant, though one would not at this stage venture to label it a `transition' in demographic terms.

The toddler de-growth phenomenon is fairly new, an indication of which is provided by the data for the succeeding age layer of 5-9 years. Between 1991 and 2001, the population in this particular bracket rose by 1.54 crore, marginally higher than the increase of 1.52 crore during 1981-1991. And unlike the dip in the 0-4 age group numbers reported by many States, a fall in the 5-9 years population between 1991 and 2001 has been limited to Tamil Nadu (down 3.67 lakh), Kerala (3.41 lakh), Tripura (22,716), Karnataka (13,929) and Andamans (1,645), with Andhra Pradesh showing a small increase of 48,847.

In other words, even if there is no clear-cut `demographic transition' for the country as a whole, something of this sort is certainly underway in the southern States. And like in many other things, a perceptible North-South chasm exists in this case too. But either way, the policy implications of stabilising child numbers are obvious.

For one, the old model of mechanically setting up more and more primary schools may have little relevance in States such as Kerala, where recent evidence points to decreasing enrolment rates. Public goods delivery systems will then have to gradually shift emphasis from quantity to quality of services.