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Thursday, Nov 04, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull onslaught

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in total control of Wednesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands strongly bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to reduce the bull count to a bare minimum thereby changing the sentiment reading to bearish. Otherwise, the prevailing sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The near month November contract opened with a bull gap of around four points and made steady gains during the day's trading. Bears were unable to make any impact during the day's trading. The November contract moved within a band of 27 points. It closed with a gain of 29 points with respect to Tuesday's close.

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The long position in the November contract remains intact. The exit level for the long position is locked up with a nominal profit. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the uptrend in the November contract is likely to continue. Bearish trigger level for the November contract is placed quite far away.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains undisturbed. The top three traded counters in this segment were Satyam, Tata Steel and Infosys.

Bear domination on Thursday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Maruti and Tata Motors. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in seven counters. The best bet is likely to be the buying in Tata Motors. Buy level for this counter is placed close to its current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

Cash Segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list too remains intact. The day's move had no impact on the recommended counter-Tata Motors.

Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in three counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. Buying in SAIL is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed within a rupee from its closing price. Bull move on Thursday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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