The Hindu Business Line : What the Bush prescription means for pharma firms

But with healthcare and affordability of medicines being key issues in the presidential debates, the impact will be felt when "election rhetoric translates into ground reality," say analysts tracking the pharma sector.

"It depends on the revival of the US economy; if that happens there will be less pressure on Big Pharma and the healthcare sector. But otherwise there will be pressure on pricing, and companies operating in the US will feel the squeeze," says an official with a multinational drug company.

"President Bush has made statements that are pro-generics. And though the Big Pharma lobby is powerful and will try to discredit the quality of generic drugs or chemically similar medicines coming from countries such as India, the country's senior citizen population has highlighted the need for inexpensive drugs. This has hit Big Pharma, with senior citizens buying their medicines in Canada, where it was less expensive. Here is where an opportunity can open up further for Indian companies," says an analyst.

President Bush's Medicare Bill had been criticised by Opposition members as a "draft by the pharmaceutical industry, for the pharmaceutical industry," adds another analyst. But with his fresh mandate, the Medicare Bill may come into play by 2006, he points out.

The Bill envisages an expanded medicare programme allowing low-cost prescription drugs into the government insurance programme to support senior citizens.

"With India going in for product patent protection, we will be in conformity with norms in the rest of the developed world, and this would bring in greater support from US government agencies," says a patent attorney with a leading law firm.

But an industry representative cautions that the going may not be all that easy. "In the past, US government agencies have played a vital role in pushing for patent-related security, more than what is required by TRIPS (Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights). They have also been instrumental in raising quality issues on anti-AIDS combination drugs from Indian companies such as Cipla and Ranbaxy. They are likely to exercise more influence and cause such problems for Indian companies."

And while the generic gold rush may not bring in the same bounty as it did in the past, it would still hold interest for a host of Indian generic companies, such as J.B. Chemcials, Unichem, Wockhardt and Nicholas Piramal, says an analyst.

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